課程資訊
課程名稱
資源評估模式:理論與實作
Advanced Quantitative Methods in Fisheries Stock Assessment 
開課學期
106-2 
授課對象
理學院  海洋生物及漁業組  
授課教師
張以杰 
課號
Ocean7178 
課程識別碼
241EM3860 
班次
 
學分
3.0 
全/半年
半年 
必/選修
選修 
上課時間
星期三6,7,8(13:20~16:20) 
上課地點
海研115 
備註
本課程以英語授課。
總人數上限:8人 
Ceiba 課程網頁
http://ceiba.ntu.edu.tw/1062Ocean7178_ 
課程簡介影片
 
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課程概述

This course is a complete review of advanced quantitative methods in fisheries stock assessment. Course covers introduction, decision analysis to evaluate alternative management actions, Bayesian state-space modelling, Meta-analysis, Integrated analysis, and Spatial modelling in stock assessment

Assessment models of biomass dynamics model, age-structured production model, and integrated stock assessment model (e.g., Stock Synthesis, SS) will be included. Student will be familiar with methods in fish population dynamics and stock assessment (e.g.., Bayesian posterior distribution, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, state-space modelling, etc.) and proficient in parameter estimation (e.g., unfished biomass, spawning biomass, MSY), as well as the uncertainty, of an exploited fish population, and evaluation of harvest restrictions for fisheries management problems by using various computer programs and tools (e.g., AD Model Builder [ADMB], WinBUGS/JAGS, SS).

The course draws examples from real fisheries in the world and provides student broad experiences of various fishery data and fish biology. The course is primarily for students of fisheries and marine ecology, but should also appeal to those interested in conservation ecology and advanced ecological modelling.
 

課程目標
The main objective of the course was to become proficient with background and tools to conduct advanced stock assessment modelling for fisheries. Student will develop professional skills of data analysis, quantitative fish population modelling, and theory and implication of fish harvest management. Student will carry out fisheries data analysis, modelling, and interpretation on a regular basis throughout the course. The course expects student will develop their own model and application. Course will provide basic programming training by following the examples using Excel, R, ADMB, WinBUGS/JAGS. 
課程要求
Ocean 7176 Ecological Modeling for Conservation of Fisheries Resources is recommended (not required) prior to this course 
預期每週課後學習時數
 
Office Hours
每週一 14:00~16:00 
指定閱讀
 
參考書目
Haddon, M. 2001. Modelling and Quantitative Methods in Fisheries. Chapman and Hall, London, 406 pp.

F. Funk, T.J. Quinn II, J. Heifetz, J.N. Ianelli, J.E. Powers, J.F. Schweigert, P.J. Sullivan, and C.I. Zhang. 1998. Fishery Stock Assessment Models. Alaska Sea Grant College Program Report No. AK-SG-98-01, University of Alaska Fairbanks.

Millar, R.B. (2011) Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference: With Examples in R, SAS and ADMB. John Wiley & Sons, Hoboken, NJ, USA.
 
評量方式
(僅供參考)
   
課程進度
週次
日期
單元主題
第1週
2/28  228 Holiday no class 
第2週
3/07  Introduction and overview: what is stock
assessment and basic modelling concept 
第3週
3/14  Non-age models: surplus production model 
第4週
3/21  Methods of fitting
 
第5週
3/28  Methods of fitting (II) 
第6週
4/04  Holiday (no class) 
第7週
4/11  GIS in R
 
第8週
4/18  non-linear minimization (NPFC saury meeting, no class) 
第9週
4/25  Midterm presentation (ISC swordfish meeting, no class) 
第10週
5/02  2018 Ocean Sciences Conference (no class)
http://osc2018.oc.ntu.edu.tw/osm2018/wp/index.php/agenda/ 
第11週
5/09  Symposium on sustainable fisheries (SEASF, no class)  
第12週
5/16  Maximum likelihood method 
第13週
5/23  Model seclection 
第14週
5/30  Bayesian analysis I 
第15週
6/06  Bayesian analysis II 
第16週
6/13  Age-structured model 
第17週
6/20  Final presentation